By Leslie Masonson
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Additional info for All about market timing: the easy way to get started
0% * in months Source: Morning Market Comments, by Don Hays, August 21, 2002. Reprinted with permission of Hays Advisory Group. The Stock Market ϭ Bull Markets ϩ Bear Markets 17 November 1907), with a drop of –46 percent. The most recent bear market, probably ending on October 9, 2002, produced a drop of –38 percent for the DJIA. But the S&P 500 Index fell –49 percent during this time frame and the Nasdaq Composite got clobbered, dropping –78 percent. 3 months. But there have been some catastrophic ones, including the 35-month bear market from September 1929 to July 1932, the 37-month bear market from June 1946 to June 1949, the 42-month bear market from September 1976 to March 1980, and of course the last 32-month bear market from January 2000 through October 2002.
It is true that a diversified portfolio will cushion the blow in bear markets, but in bear markets you will still have losses in the portion invested in equities. Buy-and-hold has had disastrous returns, even for the well-known “nifty-fifty” stocks of the 1970s. In the 1970s the current vogue was to invest in the fifty largest blue chip growth companies with the expectation that they would continue to provide investors with substantial returns on their investments. Those who invested in Xerox under that theory, saw their investment lose 72 percent of its market value in the 1973–1974 bear market; and it took them 24 years to recover their money.
This table was prepared by Dennis Tilley, Director of Research, Merriman Capital Management. 6 percent. But it was not all smooth sailing over that period. 5 percent, respectively. 6 1929–1941 Director of Research, Merriman Capital Management. Article written in November 2002. 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively. So as you can see, there can be long periods of time when the market is flat or down. Even in secular bull markets there are cyclical bear markets, where prices rally and falter, rally and falter, but overall no progress or negative progress is made.