A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking by Kenyon B. De Greene (auth.), Kenyon B. De Greene (eds.)

By Kenyon B. De Greene (auth.), Kenyon B. De Greene (eds.)

This e-book is predicated on a couple of structures ideas, of which the next are emphasised right here: oThe interacting platforms of society and the surroundings are dynamic and evolution­ ary oEvolution of those platforms includes them via phases of differential balance and instability, continuity and discontinuity oAssociated with evolution and instability is structural swap that's primarily irre­ versible oThe current is a degree of worldwide transformation that won't were equaled for many years or perhaps centuries oPolicies and judgements needs to fit the days, within the current case the degree of global transformation The time 11:59:59 PM, nearly, on December 31, 2000 has an impor­ tant symbolic that means. It marks the top of a minute, the tip of an hour, the tip of an afternoon, the top of a yr, the tip of a decade, the top of a century, and the top of a millennium. The time and date offer a handy yardstick opposed to which we will be able to evaluation the evolution of our considering and the adequacy of our assumptions, psychological types, paradigms, and regulations. Will the start tum out to be competently dif­ ferent from the top? we are hoping that this publication is useful in such overview. this can be a new-paradigm publication, which either offers and advances the recent state of mind concerning the structures of technological know-how, know-how, society, economics, politics, and the surroundings, and actively demands the alternative of the worn­ out cognitive/sociotechnical paradigm.

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Just before the linear section is a section of increased exponential growth and just after the linear section is a domain of cybernetic regulation and control of POLICY CHALLENGES IN A WORLD OF NONLINEARITY 33 that growth. The regions around the "niche" ceiling where the system has exhausted its capabilities, and at the beginning when system structure is tentative and growth is just getting started, call for a field-theoretic or reconfigurational approach. In the last nonequilibrium situations, the dynamic, evolving system is in a state of structural instability with its attendant critical thresholds and bifurcation points and is much more susceptible to fluctuations and perturbations.

3. Idealized representation of the Kondratiev cycles. The values are not absolute. 4 depicts the evolution of Kondratiev structures as overlapping logistic functions followed by diminishing returns. Momentum carries the system beyond a limit or level of saturation into the domain of diminishing returns. Note that the seeds for a subsequent recovery are sewn in the previous phase of depression (cf. the clustering of innovations mentioned above). Note also the envelope curve, tangent to the individual curves, that indicates the overall evolution of the human sociotechnical system toward sustained exponential or hyperbolic (hyperexponential) growth and greater complexity.

Chapters 5,6, 7, 8, and 9 discuss ways of upgrading systems thinking and the education of policymakers. Chapters 2, 3, and 7 present formal models that are applicable to a variety of policy situations. Finally, broad frameworks, into which more specific policies would fit, must be developed. In this book these frameworks include the limits to growth, the ex- 38 A SYSTEMS-BASED APPROACH TO POLICYMAKING haustion of the present sociotechnical/techno-economic paradigm, the end to war, preservation of the natural environment, and humanistic values and designs.

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